
Putin and
the Geopolitics of the New Cold War: Or what happens when Cowboys don`t
shoot straight like they used to...
(Thanks to J.M Bayldon
for alerting us to this very thought provoking
article)
Is Globalist Geopolitics risking a nuclear
Armageddon?
The frank words of Russia’s President
Vladimir Putin to the assembled
participants of the annual Munich Wehrkunde security conference have
unleashed a storm of self-righteous protest from Western media and
politicians. A visitor from another planet might have the impression
that the Russian President had abruptly decided to launch a provocative
confrontation policy with the West reminiscent of the 1943-1991 Cold
War.
However, the details of the developments in NATO and the United States
military policies since 1991 are anything but ‘déjà vu
all over again’, to paraphrase the legendary New York Yankees catcher,
Yogi Berra.
This time round we are already deep in a New Cold War, which literally
threatens the future of life on this planet. The debacle in Iraq, or
the prospect of a US tactical nuclear pre-emptive strike against Iran
are ghastly enough. In comparison to what is at play in the US global
military buildup against its most formidable remaining global rival,
Russia, they loom relatively small. The US military policies since the
end of the Soviet Union and emergence of the Republic of Russia in 1991
are in need of close examination in this context. Only then do Putin’s
frank remarks on February 10 at the Munich Conference on Security make
sense.
Because of the misleading accounts of most of Putin’s remarks in most
western media, it’s worth reading in full in English (go to
www.securityconference.de for official English translation).
Putin spoke in general terms of Washington’s vision of a ‘unipolar’
world, with ‘one center of authority, one center of force, one center
of decision-making, calling it a ‘world in which there is one master,
one sovereign. And at the end of the day this is pernicious not only
for all those within this system, but also for the sovereign itself
because it destroys itself from within.’
Then the Russian President got to the heart of the matter: ‘Today we
are witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force – military
force – in international relations, force that is plunging the world
into an abyss of permanent conflicts. As a result we do not have
sufficient strength to find a comprehensive solution to any one of
these conflicts. Finding a political settlement also becomes
impossible.’
Putin continued, ‘We are seeing a greater and greater disdain for the
basic principles of international law. And independent legal norms are,
as a matter of fact, coming increasingly closer to one state’s legal
system. One state and, of course, first and foremost the United States,
has overstepped its national borders in every way. This is visible in
the economic, political, cultural and educational policies it imposes
on other nations. Well, who likes this? Who is happy about this?’
These direct words begin to touch on what Mr Putin is concerned about
in US foreign and military policy since the end of the Cold War some 16
or so years back. But it is further in the text that he gets explicit
about what military policies he is reacting to. Here is where the
speech is worth clarification. Putin warns of the destabilizing effect
of ‘space weapons.’—‘it is impossible to sanction the appearance of
new, destabilising high-tech weapons…a new area of confrontation,
especially in outer space. Star wars is no longer a fantasy – it is a
reality…In Russia’s opinion, the militarization of outer space could
have unpredictable consequences for the international community, and
provoke nothing less than the beginning of a nuclear (arms race-f.w.e.)
era.’
He then declares, ‘Plans to expand certain elements of the anti-missile
defence system to Europe cannot help but disturb us. Who needs the next
step of what would be, in this case, an inevitable arms race?’
What does he refer to here? Few are aware that while claiming it is
doing so to protect itself against the risk of ‘rogue state’ nuclear
missile attack from the likes of North Korea or perhaps one day Iran,
the US recently announced it is building massive anti-missile defense
installations in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Poland? Missile defense? What’s this all about?
Missile Defense and a US
Nuclear First Strike
On January 29 US Army Brigadier General Patrick J. O`Reilly, Deputy
Director of the Pentagon`s Missile Defense Agency, announced US plans
to deploy anti-ballistic missile defense elements in Europe by 2011,
which the Pentagon claims is aimed at protecting American and NATO
installations from enemy threats coming from the Middle East, not
Russia. Following Putin’s Munich remarks, the US State Department
issued a formal comment noting that the Bush Administration is ‘puzzled
by the repeated caustic comments about the envisaged system from
Moscow.’
Oops…Better send that press release back to the Pentagon’s Office of
Deception Propaganda for rewrite. The Iran missile threat to NATO
installations in Poland somehow isn’t quite convincing. Why not ask
long-time NATO member Turkey if the US can place its missile shield
there, far closer to Iran? Or maybe Kuwait? Or Israel?
US policy since 1999 has called for building some form of active
missile defense despite the end of the Cold War threat from Soviet ICBM
or other missile launch. The National Missile Defense Act of 1999
(Public Law 106-38) says so: ‘It is the policy of the United States to
deploy as soon as is technologically possible an effective National
Missile Defense system capable of defending the territory of the United
States against limited ballistic missile attack (whether accidental,
unauthorized, or deliberate) with funding subject to the annual
authorization of appropriations and the annual appropriation of funds
for National Missile Defense.’ Missile defense was one of Donald
Rumsfeld’s obsessions as Defense Secretary.
Why now?
What is increasingly clear, at least in Moscow and Beijing, is that
Washington has a far larger grand strategy behind its seemingly
irrational and arbitrary unilateral military moves.
For the Pentagon and the US policy establishment, regardless of
political party, the Cold War with Russia never ended. It merely
continued in disguised form. This has been the case with Presidents
G.H.W. Bush, William Clinton and with George W. Bush.
Missile defense sounded plausible if the United States were vulnerable
to attack by a tiny band of dedicated Islamic terrorists able to
commandeer a Boeing aircraft with boxcutters. The only problem is
missile defense is not aimed at rogue terrorists like Bin Laden’s Al
Qaeda, or states like North Korea or Iran.
From them the threat of a devastating nuclear strike on the territory
of the United States is non-existent. The US Navy and Air Force bomber
fleet today stands in full preparation to bomb, even nuke Iran back to
the stone age only over suspicions she is trying to develop independent
nuclear weapon technology. States like Iran have no capability to
render America defenceless, without risking nuclear annihilation many
times over.
Missile defense came out of the 1980’s when Ronald Reagan proposed
developing a system of satellites in space and radar bases around the
globe, listening stations and interceptor missiles, to monitor and
shoot down nuclear missiles before they hit their intended target.
It was dubbed Star Wars by its critics, but the Pentagon officially has
spent more than $130 billion on such a system since 1983. George W.
Bush increased that significantly beginning 2002, to $11 billion a
year, double the level during the Clinton years. And another $53
billion for the following five years has been budgeted.
Washington’s obsession
with Nuclear Primacy
What Washington did not say, but Putin has now alluded to in Munich, is
that the US missile defense is not at all defensive. It is offensive,
and how.
The possibility of providing a powerful state, one with the world’s
most awesome military machinery, a shield to protect it from limited
attack, is aimed directly at Russia, the only other nuclear power with
anywhere the capacity to launch a credible nuclear counterpunch.
Were the United States able to effectively shield itself from a
potential Russian response to a US nuclear First Strike, the US would
be able simply to dictate to the entire world on its terms, not only to
Russia. That would be what military people term Nuclear Primacy. That
is the real meaning of Putin’s unusual speech. He isn’t paranoid. He’s
being starkly realistic.
Since the end of the Cold War in 1989, it’s now clear that the US
Government has never for a moment stopped its pursuit of Nuclear
Primacy. For Washington and the US elites, the Cold War never ended.
They just forgot to tell us all.
The quest for global control of oil and energy pipelines, the quest to
establish its military bases across Eurasia, its attempt to modernize
and upgrade its nuclear submarine fleet, its Strategic B-52 bomber
command, all make sense only when seen through the perspective of the
relentless pursuit of US Nuclear Primacy.
The Bush Administration unilaterally abrogated the US-Russian ABM
Treaty in December 2001. It’s in a race to complete a global network of
missile defense as the key to US nuclear primacy. With even a primitive
missile defense shield, the US could attack Russian missile silos and
submarine fleets with no fear of effective retaliation, as the few
remaining Russian nuclear missiles would be unable to launch a
convincing response enough to deter a US First Strike.
The ability of both sides—the Warsaw Pact and NATO—during the Cold War,
to mutually annihilate one another, led to a nuclear stalemate dubbed
by military strategists, MAD—mutual assured destruction. It was scary
but in a bizarre sense, more stable that what we have today with a
unilateral US pursuit of nuclear primacy. The prospect of mutual
nuclear annihilation with no decisive advantage for either side, led to
a world in which nuclear war had been ‘unthinkable.’
Now, the US pursues the possibility of nuclear war as ‘thinkable.’
That’s really mad.
The first nation with a nuclear missile shield would de facto have
‘first strike ability.’ Quite correctly, Lt. Colonel Robert Bowman,
Director of the US Air Force missile defense program, recently called
missile defense, ‘the missing link to a First Strike.’
More alarming is the fact no one outside a handful of Pentagon planners
or senior intelligence officials in Washington discusses the
implications of Washington’s pursuit of missile defense in Poland,
Czech Republic or its drive for Nuclear Primacy.
It calls to mind ‘Rebuilding America’s Defenses,’ the September 2000
report of the hawkish Project for the New American Century, where Dick
Cheney and Don Rumsfeld were members. There they declared, ‘The United
States must develop and deploy global missile defenses to defend the
American homeland and American allies, and to provide a secure basis
for US power projection around the world.’ (author’s emphasis).
Before becoming Bush’s Defense Secretary in January 2001, Rumsfeld
headed a Presidential Commission advocating the development of missile
defense for the United States.
So eager was the Bush-Cheney Administration to advance its missile
defense plans, that the President and Defense Secretary ordered waiving
usual operational testing requirements essential to determining whether
the highly complex system of systems was effective.
The Rumsfeld missile defense program is strongly opposed within the
military command. On March 26, 2004 no less than 49 US generals and
admirals signed an Open Letter to the President, appealing for missile
defense postponement.
As they noted, ‘US technology, already deployed, can pinpoint the
source of a ballistic missile launch. It is, therefore, highly unlikely
that any state would dare to attack the US or allow a terrorist to do
so from its territory with a missile armed with a weapon of mass
destruction, thereby risking annihilation from a devastating US
retaliatory strike.’
The 49 generals and admirals, including Admiral William J. Crowe,
former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the Armed Forces, went
on to argue to the President, ‘As you have said, Mr. President, our
highest priority is to prevent terrorists from acquiring and employing
weapons of mass destruction. We agree. We therefore recommend, as the
militarily responsible course of action, that you postpone operational
deployment of the expensive and untested GMD (Ground-based Missile
Defense) system and transfer the associated funding to accelerated
programs to secure the multitude of facilities containing nuclear
weapons and materials, and to protect our ports and borders against
terrorists who may attempt to smuggle weapons of mass destruction into
the United States.’
What the seasoned military veterans did not say was that Rumsfeld,
Cheney, Bush and company had quite another agenda than rogue terror
threats. They were after Full
Spectrum Dominance, the New World Order,
and the elimination, for once and all, of Russia as a potential rival
for power.
The rush to deploy a missile defense shield is clearly not aimed at
North Korea or terror attacks. It is aimed at Russia and much less so,
the far smaller nuclear capacities of China. As the 49 generals and
admirals noted in their letter to the President in 2004, the US already
had more than sufficient nuclear warheads to hit a thousand bunkers or
caves of a potential rogue state.
Kier Lieber and Daryl Press, two US military analysts, writing in the
influential Foreign Affairs of the New York Council on Foreign
Relations in March 2006, noted, ‘If the United States’ nuclear
modernization were really aimed at rogue states or terrorists, the
country’s nuclear force would not need the additional thousand
ground-burst warheads it will gain from the W-76 modernization program.
The current and future US nuclear force, in other words, seems designed
to carry out a pre-emptive disarming strike against Russia or China.’
Referring to the aggressive new Pentagon deployment plans for missile
defense, Lieber and Press add, ‘the sort of missile defenses that the
United States might plausibly deploy would be valuable primarily in an
offensive context, not a defensive one—as an adjunct to a US First
Strike capability, not as a stand-alone shield. If the United States
launched a nuclear attack against Russia (or China), the targeted
country would be left with a tiny surviving arsenal—if any at all. At
that point, even a relatively modest or inefficient missile defense
system might well be enough to protect against any retaliatory strikes…’
This
is the real agenda in Washington’s Eurasian Great Game. Naturally,
to state so openly would risk tipping Washington’s hand before the
noose had been irreversibly tightened around Moscow’s metaphorical
neck. So the State Department and Defense Secretary Gates try to make
jokes about the recent Russian remarks, as though they were Putin’s
paranoid delusions.
This entire US program of missile defense and nuclear First Strike
modernization is hair-raising enough as an idea. Under the Bush
Administration, it has been made operational and airborne, hearkening
back to the dangerous days of the Cold War with fleets of nuclear-armed
B-52 bombers and Trident nuclear missile submarines on ready alert
around the clock, a nuclear horror scenario.
Global
Strike: Pentagon Conplan 8022
The march towards possible nuclear catastrophe by intent or by
miscalculation, as a consequence of the bold new Washington policy,
took on significant new gravity in June 2004, only weeks after the 49
generals and admirals took the highly unusual step of writing to their
President.
That June, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld approved a Top Secret order for
the Armed Forces of the United States to implement something called
Conplan 8022, ‘which provides the President a prompt, global strike
capability.’
The term, Conplan, is Pentagon shorthand for Contingency Plan. What
‘contingencies’ are Pentagon planners preparing for? A pre-emptive
conventional strike against tiny North Korea or even Iran? Or a
full-force pre-emptive nuclear assault on the last formidable nuclear
power not under the thumb of the US’ Full Spectrum Dominance-- Russia?
The two words, ‘global strike’, are also notable. It’s Pentagon-speak
to describe a specific pre-emptive attack which, for the first time
since the earliest Cold War days, includes a nuclear option, counter to
the traditional US military notion of nuclear weapons being only used
in defense to deter attack.
Conplan 8022, as has been noted by some, is unlike traditional Pentagon
war plans which have been essentially defensive responses to invasion
or attack.
In concert with the aggressive pre-emptive 2002 Bush Doctrine, Bush’s
new Conplan 8022 is offensive. It could be triggered by the mere
‘perception’ of an imminent threat, and carried out by Presidential
order, without Congress.
Given the details about false or faked ‘perceptions’ in the Pentagon
and the Office of the Vice President about Iraq’s threat of weapons of
mass destruction in 2003, the new Conplan 8022 suggests a US President
might order the missiles against any and every perceived threat or even
potential, unproven threat.
In response to Rumsfeld’s June 2004 order, General Richard Myers, then
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, signed the order to make Conplan
8022 operational. Selected nuclear-capable bombers, ICBMs, SSBNs, and
‘information warfare’ (sic) units have been deployed against unnamed
high-value targets in ‘adversary’ countries.
Was Iran an adversary country, even though it had never attacked the
United States? Was North Korea, even though it had never in five
decades launched a direct attack on South Korea, let alone any one
else? Is China an ‘adversary’ because it’s simply becoming economically
too influential?
Is
Russia now an adversary because she refuses to lay back and accept
being made what Brzezinski terms a ‘vassal’ state of the American
Empire?
Because there has been zero open debate inside the United States about
Conplan 8022, there has been virtually no discussion of any of these
potentially nuclear-loaded questions.
What makes the June 2004 Rumsfeld order even more unsettling to a world
which truly had hoped nuclear mushroom clouds had become a threat of
the past, is that Conplan 8022 contains a significant nuclear attack
component.
It’s true that the overall number of nuclear weapons in the US military
stockpile has been declining since the end of the Cold War. But not, it
seems, because the US is moving the world back from the brink of
nuclear war by miscalculation.
The new missile defense expansion to Poland and Czech Republic is
better understood from the point of the remarkable expansion of NATO
since 1991. As Putin noted, ‘NATO has put its frontline forces on our
borders… think it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any
relation with the modernisation of the Alliance itself or with ensuring
security in Europe. On the contrary, it represents a serious
provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust. And we have the
right to ask: against whom is this expansion intended? And what
happened to the assurances our western partners made after the
dissolution of the Warsaw Pact?’
US
bases encircle Russia
As Russian strategist and military expert, Yevgeny Primakov, a close
adviser to Putin, recently noted, NATO was ‘founded during the Cold War
era as a regional organization to ensure the security of US allies in
Europe.’ He adds, ‘NATO today is acting on the basis of an entirely
different philosophy and doctrine, moving outside the European
continent and conducting military operations far beyond its bounds.
NATO…is rapidly expanding in contravention to earlier accords. The
admission of new members to NATO is leading to the expansion of bases
that host the U.S. military, air defense systems, as well as ABM
components.’
Today, NATO member states include not only the Cold War core in Western
Europe, commanded by an American. NATO also includes former Warsaw Pact
or Soviet Union states Poland, Latvia, Czech Republic, Estonia,
Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Slovenia, formerly
of Yugoslavia. Candidates to join include the Republic of Georgia,
Croatia, Albania and Macedonia. Ukraine’s President, Victor Yushchenko,
has tried aggressively to bring Ukraine into NATO. This is a clear
message to Moscow, not surprisingly, one they don’t seem to welcome
with open arms.
New NATO structures have also been formed while old ones were
abolished: The NATO Response Force (NRF) was launched at the 2002
Prague Summit. In 2003, just after the fall of Baghdad, a major
restructuring of the NATO military commands began. The Headquarters of
the Supreme Allied Commander, Atlantic was abolished. A new command,
Allied Command Transformation (ACT), was established in Norfolk,
Virginia. ACT is responsible for driving ‘transformation’ in NATO.
By 2007 Washington had signed an agreement with Japan to co-operate on
missile defense development. She was deeply engaged in testing a
missile defense system with Israel. She has now extended her European
Missile Defense to Poland, where the Minister of Defense is a close
friend and ally of Pentagon neo-conservative war-hawks, and to the
Czech Republic. NATO has agreed to put the question of the Ukraine and
Republic of Georgia’s bids for NATO membership on a fast track. The
Middle East, despite the debacle in Iraq, is being militarized with a
permanent network of US bases from Qatar to Iraq and beyond.
On February 15, the US House of Representatives Foreign Affairs
Committee approved a draft, the Orwellian-named NATO Freedom
Consolidation Act of 2007 reaffirming US backing for the further
enlargement of NATO, including support for Ukraine to join along with
Georgia.
From the Russian point of view, NATO›s eastward expansion since the end
of the cold war has been in clear breach of an agreement between
then-Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US President George H.W. Bush
which allowed for a peaceful unification of Germany. NATO's expansion
policy is seen as a continuation of a Cold War attempt to surround and
isolate Russia.
New bases to guard
‘democracy’?
An almost unnoticed consequence of Washington’s policy since the
bombing of Serbia in 1999, has been establishment of an extraordinary
network of new US military bases, bases in parts of the world where it
seems little justified as a US defensive precaution, given the threat,
huge taxpayer expense, let alone other global military commitments.
In June 1999, following the bombing of Yugoslavia, US forces began
construction of Camp Bondsteel, at the border between Kosovo and
Macedonia. It was the lynchpin in what was to be a new global network
of US bases.
Bondsteel put US air power within easy striking distance of the
oil-rich Middle East and Caspian Sea, as well as Russia. Camp Bondsteel
was at the time the largest US military base built since the Vietnam
War, with nearly 7,000 troops. The base had been built by the largest
US military construction company, Halliburton’s KBR. Halliburton’s CEO
at the time was Dick Cheney.
Before the start of the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999, the
Washington Post matter-of-factly noted, ‘With the Middle-East
increasingly fragile, we will need bases and fly-over rights in the
Balkans to protect Caspian Sea oil.’
Camp Bondsteel was but the first of a vast chain of US bases that have
been built during this decade. The US military went on to build
military bases in Hungary, Bosnia, Albania and Macedonia, in addition
to Camp Bondsteel in Kosovo, then still legally part of Yugoslavia.
One of the most important and least mentioned new US bases was in
Bulgaria, a former Soviet satellite and now new NATO member. In a
conflict---and in Pentagon-speak there are only ‘conflicts,’ no longer
wars, which involved issues of asking the US Congress to declare them
officially, and provide just reason---the military would use Bezmer to
‘surge’ men and materiel toward the front lines. Where? In Russia?
The US has been building its bases in Afghanistan. It built three major
US bases in the wake of its occupation of Afghanistan in winter of
2001, at Bagram Air Field north of Kabul, the US’ main military
logistics center; Kandahar Air Field, in southern Afghanistan and
Shindand Air Field in the western province of Herat. Shindand, the
largest US base in Afghanistan, was built some 100 kilometers from the
border with Iran.
Afghanistan had historically been the heart of the British-Russia Great
Game, the struggle for control of Central Asia during the 19th and
early 20th Centuries. British strategy was to prevent Russia at all
costs from controlling Afghanistan and thereby gaining a warm water
port for its navy and threatening Britain’s imperial crown jewel, India.
Afghanistan is also seen by Pentagon planners as highly strategic. It
is a platform from which US military might could directly threaten
Russia and China as well as Iran and other oil-rich Middle East lands.
Little had changed in that respect over more than a century of wars.
Afghanistan is in an extremely vital location, straddling South Asia,
Central Asia, and the Middle East. Afghanistan also lies along a
proposed oil pipeline route from the Caspian Sea oil fields to the
Indian Ocean, where the US oil company, Unocal, had been in
negotiations, together with Cheney’s Halliburton and with Enron, for
exclusive pipeline rights to bring natural gas from Turkmenistan across
Afghanistan and Pakistan to Enron’s huge natural gas power plant at
Dabhol near Mumbai.
At that same time, the Pentagon came to an agreement with the
government of Kyrgystan in Central Asia, to build a strategically
important base there, Manas Air Base at Bishkek’s international
airport. Manas is not only near to Afghanistan; it is also in easy
striking distance to Caspian Sea oil and gas, as well as to the borders
of both China and Russia.
As part of the price of accepting him as a US ally in the War on Terror
rather than a foe, Washington extracted an agreement from Pakistan’s
military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, to allow the airport at
Jacobabad, about 400km north of Karachi, to be used by the US Air Force
and NATO ‘to support their campaign in Afghanistan.’ Two other US bases
were built at Dalbandin and Pasni.
This all is merely a small part of the vast web of US-controlled
military bases Washington has been building globally since the
so-called end of the Cold War.
It’s becoming clear to much of the rest of the world that Washington
might even itself be instigating or provoking wars or conflicts with
nations across the world, not merely to control oil, though strategic
control of global oil flows had been at the heart of the American
Century since the 1920’s. That’s the real significance of what Vladimir
Putin said in Munich. He told the world what it did not want to hear:
The American ‘Emperor’s New Clothes did not exist. The Emperor was
clothed in naked pursuit of global military control.
During the early 1990s, at the end of the Cold War, the Yeltsin
government had asked Washington for a series of mutual reductions in
the size of each superpower’s nuclear missile and weapons arsenal.
Russian nuclear stockpiles were ageing and Moscow saw little further
need to remain armed to its nuclear teeth once the Cold War had ended.
Washington clearly saw in this a golden opportunity to go for nuclear
primacy, for the first time since the 1950’s, when Russia first
developed Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile delivery capability for
its growing nuclear weapons arsenal.
Nuclear primacy is an aggressive offensive policy. It means that one
superpower, USA, would have the possibility to launch a full nuclear
First Strike at Russia’s nuclear sites and destroy enough targets in
the first blow, that Russia would be crippled from making any effective
retaliation.
With no credible threat of retaliation, Russia had no credible nuclear
deterrent. It was at the mercy of the supreme power. Never before in
history had the prospect of such ultimate power in the hands of one
single nation seemed so near at hand.
This stealthy move by the Pentagon for Nuclear Primacy has, up until
now, been carried out in utmost secrecy, disguised amid rhetoric of a
USA-Russia ‘Partnership for Peace.’
Rather than take advantage of the opportunity to climb down from the
brink of nuclear annihilation following the end of the Cold War,
Washington has turned instead to upgrading its nuclear arsenal, at the
same time it was reducing its numbers.
While the rest of the world was still in shock over the events of
September 11, 2001, the Bush Administration unilaterally moved to rip
up its earlier treaty obligations with Russia to not build an
anti-missile defense.
On December 13, 2001, President Bush announced that the United States
Government was unilaterally abandoning the Anti-Ballistic Missile
Treaty with Russia, and committing $8 billion for the 2002 Budget to
build a National Missile Defense system. It was pushed through
Congress, promoted as a move to protect US territory from rogue terror
attacks, from states including North Korea or Iraq.
The rogue argument was a fraud, a plausible cover story designed to
sneak the policy reversal through without debate, in the wake of the
September 11 shock.
The repeal of the ABM Treaty was little understood outside qualified
military circles. In fact, it represented the most dangerous step by
the United States towards nuclear war since the 1950’s. Washington is
going at a fast pace to the goal of total nuclear superiority globally,
Nuclear Primacy.
Washington has dismantled its highly lethal MX missiles by 2005. But
that’s misleading. At the same time, it significantly improved its
remaining ICBM’s by installing the MX’s high-yield nuclear warheads and
advanced re-entry vehicles on its Minuteman ICBMs. The guidance system
of the Minuteman has been upgraded to match that of the dismantled MX.
The Pentagon began replacing ageing ballistic missiles on its
submarines with far more accurate Trident II D-5 missiles with new
larger-yield nuclear warheads.
The Navy shifted more of its nuclear ballistic missile-launching SSBN
submarines to the Pacific to patrol the blind spot of Russia’s early
warning radar net as well as patrolling near China’s coast. The US Air
Force completed refitting its B-52 bombers with nuclear-armed cruise
missiles believed invisible to Russian air defense radar. New enhanced
avionics on its B-2 stealth bombers gave them the ability to fly at
extremely low altitudes avoiding radar detection as well.
A vast number of stockpiled weapons is not necessary to the new global
power projection. Little-publicized new technology has enabled the US
to deploy a ‘leaner and meaner’ nuclear strike force. A case in point
is the Navy’s successful program to upgrade the fuse on the W-76
nuclear warheads sitting atop most US submarine-launched missiles,
which makes them able to hit very hard targets such as ICBM silos.
No one has ever presented credible evidence that Al Qaeda, Hamas,
Hezbollah or any other organization on the US State Department’s
Terrorist Organization Black List possessed nuclear missiles in
hardened underground silos. Aside from the US and perhaps Israel, only
Russia and to a far smaller degree, China, have these in any number.
In 1991 at the presumed end of the Cold War, in a gesture to lower the
danger of strategic nuclear miscalculation, the US Air Force was
ordered to remove its fleet of nuclear bombers from Ready Alert status.
After 2004 that too changed.
Conplan 8022 again put US Air Force long-range B-52 and other bombers
on ‘Alert’ status. The Commander of the 8th Air Force stated at the
time, that his nuclear bombers were ‘essentially on alert to plan and
execute Global Strikes’ on behalf of the US Strategic Command or
STRATCOM, based in Omaha, Nebraska.
Conplan 8022 included not only long-range nuclear and conventional
weapons launched from the US, but also nuclear and other bombs deployed
in Europe, Japan and other sites. It gave the US what the Pentagon
termed Global Strike, the ability to hit any point on the earth or sky
with devastating force, nuclear as well as conventional. Since the
Rumsfeld June 2004 readiness order, the US Strategic Command has
boasted it was ready to execute an attack anywhere on earth ‘in half a
day or less,’ from the moment the President gave the order.
In the January 24, 2006 London Financial Times, the US Ambassador to
NATO, Victoria Nuland, former adviser to Vice President Dick Cheney and
wife of a leading Washington neo-conservative warhawk, declared that
the US wanted a ‘globally deployable military force’ that would operate
everywhere – from Africa to the Middle East and beyond.
It would include Japan and Australia as well as the NATO nations.
Nuland added, ‘It’s a totally different animal (sic) whose ultimate
role will be subject to US desires and adventures.’ Subject to US
desires and adventures? Those were hardly calming words given the
record of Nuland’s former boss in faking intelligence to justify wars
in Iraq and elsewhere.
Now, with the deployment of even a crude missile defense, under Conplan
8022, the US would have what Pentagon planners called ‘escalation
dominance’—the ability to win a war at any level of violence, including
nuclear war.
As some more sober minds argued, were Russia and China to respond to
these US moves with even minimal self-protection measures, the risks of
a global nuclear conflagration by miscalculation would climb to levels
far beyond any seen even during the Cuba Missile Crisis or the danger
days of the Cold War.
Mackinder’s Nightmare
In a few brief years Washington has managed to create the nightmare of
Britain’s father of geopolitics, Sir Halford Mackinder, the horror
scenario feared by Zbigniew Brzezinski, Henry Kissinger and other Cold
War veterans of US foreign policy who have studied and understood the
power calculus of Mackinder.
The vast resources-rich and population-rich Eurasian Heartland and
landmass is building economic and military ties with one another for
the first time in history, ties whose driving force is the increasingly
aggressive Washington role in the world.
The driver of the emerging Eurasian geopolitical cooperation is
obvious. China, with the world’s largest population and an economy
expanding at double digits, urgently needs secure alliance partners who
could secure her energy security. Russia, an energy goliath, needs
secure trade outlets independent of Washington control to develop and
rebuild its tattered economy. These complimentary needs form the seed
crystal of what Washington and US strategists define as a new Cold War,
this one over energy, over oil and natural gas above all. Military
might is the currency this time as in the earlier Cold War.
By 2006 Moscow and Beijing had clearly decided to upgrade their
cooperation with their Eurasian neighbors. They both agreed to turn to
a moribund loose organization that they had co-founded in 2001, in the
wake of the 1998 Asia crisis, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization or
SCO. The SCO had highly significant members, geopolitically seen. SCO
included oil-rich Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as
well as China and Russia. By 2006 Beijing and Moscow began to view the
SCO as a nascent counterweight to increasingly arbitrary American power
politics. The organization was discussing projects of energy
cooperation and even military mutual defense.
The pressures of an increasingly desperate US foreign policy are
forcing an unlikely ‘coalition of the unwilling’ across Eurasia. The
potentials of such Eurasian cooperation between China, Kazakhstan, Iran
are real enough and obvious. The missing link, however, is the military
security that could make it invulnerable or nearly, to the
sabre-rattling from Washington and NATO. Only one power on the face of
the earth has the nuclear and military base and know-how able to
provide that—Vladimir Putin’s Russia.
The Russian Bear sharpens
its nuclear teeth…
With NATO troops creeping up to Russia’s borders on all sides, US
nuclear B-52s and SSBN submarines being deployed to strategic sites on
Russia’s perimeter, Washington extending its new missile shield from
Greenland to the UK, to Australia, Japan and now even Poland and the
Czech Republic, it should be no surprise that the Russian Government is
responding.
While Washington planners may have assumed that because the once-mighty
Red Army was a shell of its former glory, that the state of Russian
military preparedness since the end of the Cold War was laughable.But
Russia never let go of its one trump card—its strategic nuclear force.
During the entire economic chaos of the Yeltsin years, Russia never
stopped producing state-of-the art military technology.
In May 2003, some months after George Bush unilaterally ripped up the
bilateral Anti-Missile Defense Treaty with Moscow, invaded Afghanistan
and bombed Baghdad into subjugation, Russia’s President delivered a new
message in his annual State of the Union Address to the Russian nation.
Putin spoke for the first time publicly of the need to modernize
Russia’s nuclear deterrent by creating new types of weapons, ‘which
will ensure the defense capability of Russia and its allies in the long
term.’
In response to the abrogation by the Bush Administration of the ABM
Treaty, and with it Start II, Russia predictably stopped withdrawing
and destroying its SS-18 MIRVed missiles. Start II had called for full
phase out of multiple warhead or MIRVed missiles, by both sides by 2007.
At that point Russia began to reconfigure its SS-18 MIRV missiles to
extend their service life to 2016. Fully loaded SS-18 missiles had a
range of 11,000 kilometers. In addition, it redeployed mobile
rail-based SS-24 M1 nuclear missiles.
In its 2003 Budget, the Russian government made funding of its SS-27 or
Topol-M single-warhead missiles a ‘priority.’ And the Defense Ministry
resumed test launches of both SS-27 and Topol-M.
In December 2006, Putin told Russian journalists that deployment of the
new Russian mobile Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile system
was crucial for Russia’s national security. Without naming the obvious
US threat, he declared, ‘Maintaining a strategic balance will mean that
our strategic deterrent forces should be able to guarantee the
neutralization of any potential aggressor, no matter what modern
weapons systems he possesses.’
It was unmistakable whom he had in mind, and it wasn’t the Al Qaeda
cave-dwellers of Tora Bora.
Russian Defense Minister, Sergei Ivanov, announced at the same time
that the military would deploy another 69 silo-based and mobile Topol-M
missile systems over the following decade. Just after his Munich speech
Putin announced he had named his old KGB/FSB friend, Ivanov to be his
First Deputy Prime Minister overseeing the entire military industry.
The Russian Defense Ministry reported that as of January 2006, Russia
possessed 927 nuclear delivery vehicles and 4,279 nuclear warheads
against 1,255 and 5,966 respectively for the United States. Nop two
other powers on the face of the earth even came close to these massive
overkill capacities. This was the ultimate reason all US foreign
policy, military and economic, since the end of the Cold War had
covertly had as endgame the complete deconstruction of Russia as a
functioning state.
In April 2006, the Russian military tested the K65M-R missile, a new
missile designed to penetrate US missile defense systems. It was part
of testing and deploying a uniform warhead for both land and sea-based
ballistic missiles. The new missile was hypersonic and capable of
changing flight path.
Four months earlier, Russia successfully tested its Bulava ICBM, a
naval version of the Topol-M. It was launched from one of its
Typhoon-class ballistic missile submarines in the White Sea, travelling
a thousand miles before hitting a dummy target successfully on the
Kamchatka Peninsula. The Bulava missiles were to be installed on
Russian Borey-class nuclear submarines beginning 2008.
During a personal inspection of the first regiment of Russian mobile
Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles in December 2006, Putin
told reporters the deployment of mobile Topol-M ICBMs were crucial for
Russia’s national security, stating, ‘This is a significant step
forward in improving our defense capabilities.’
‘Maintaining a strategic balance,’ he continued, ’will mean that our
strategic deterrent forces should be able to guarantee the
neutralization of any potential aggressor, no matter what modern
weapons systems he possesses.’
Putin clearly did not have France in mind when he referred to the
unnamed ‘he.’ President Putin had personally given French President
Chirac a tour of one of Russia’s missile facilities that January, where
Putin explained the latest Russian missile advances. ‘He knows what I
am talking about,’ Putin told reporters afterwards, referring to
Chirac’s grasp of the weapon’s significance.
Putin also did not have North Korea, China, Pakistan or India in mind,
nor Great Britain with its ageing nuclear capacity, not even Israel.
The only power surrounding Russia with weapons of mass destruction was
its old Cold War foe--the United States.
The Commander of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces, General Nikolai
Solovtsov, was more explicit. Commenting on the successful test of the
K65M-R at Russia’s Kapustin Yar missile test site last April, he
declared that US plans for a missile defense system, ‘could upset
strategic stability. The planned scale of the United States’ deployment
of a…missile defense system is so considerable that the fear that it
could have a negative effect on the parameters of Russia’s nuclear
deterrence potential is quite justified.’ Put simply, he referred to
the now open US quest for Full Spectrum Dominance—Nuclear Primacy.
A
new Armageddon is in the making. The unilateral military agenda of
Washington has predictably provoked a major effort by Russia to defend
herself. The prospects of a global nuclear conflagration, by
miscalculation, increase by the day. At what point might an American
President, God forbid, decide to order a pre-emptive full-scale nuclear
attack on Russia to prevent Russia from rebuilding a state of mutual
deterrence?
The new Armageddon is not exactly the Armageddon which George Bush’s
Christian fanatics pray for as they dream of their Rapture. It is an
Armageddon in which Russia and the United States would irradiate the
planet and, perhaps, end human civilization in the process.
Ironically, oil, in the context of Washington’s bungled Iraq war and
soaring world oil prices after 2003, has enabled Russia to begin the
arduous job of rebuilding its collapsed economy and its military
capacities. Putin’s Russia is no longer a begger-thy-neighbor former
Superpower. It’s using its oil weapon and rebuilding its nuclear ones.
Bush’s America is a hollowed-out debt-ridden economy engaged on using
its last card, its vast military power to prop up the dollar and its
role as world sole Superpower.
Putin has obviously realized that his new-found
‘partner-in-prayer’, George W., has a large black spot hiding the
secrets of his heart. It reminded of a popular country and western
ballad from the late Tammy Wynette, ‘Cowboys don’t shoot straight like
they used to. They look you in the eye and lie with their white hats
on.’ That’s certainly the case with the famous cowboy of Crawford,
Texas in his dealings with Vladimir Putin and the rest of the world.