Population
projections are subject to a variety of factors
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White
people of European descent will no longer make up a majority of the US
population by the year 2042 - eight years
sooner than previous estimates.
The big change is among Hispanics and
Asians whose share of the population is set to double to 30% and 9%.
The population is also ageing: by
2050 one in five residents will be aged 65 or over, up from one in nine
today.
The US Census Bureau's latest
projections are based on birth, death and current immigration rates.
The projections show that the US
population is expected to rise from 305 million people to 439 million
by 2050, but it will be a population that
looks quite different both in age, race and ethnicity.
According
to the census bureau's statistics, people who regard themselves as
Hispanic, African-American, Asian, American Indian, Native Hawaiian and
Pacific Islander will become the majority by 2042.
Officials had previously projected
that this change would happen in 2050.
The new projections suggestion that
by 2050, minorities will account for 54% of the population and
non-Hispanic whites 46%, down from their current 64.7% share.
Immigration and higher birth rates
among US minorities, especially Hispanics, are accelerating the
demographic changes.
Hispanics will see their population
nearly triple from 47 million to 133 million, causing their share of
the population to increase from 15% to 30%.
Asians
will also see a big increase, with their numbers growing from 16
million to 41 million.
Single-race Asians will account for
8% of the population and 9% including those of mixed race.
The
black population, including those of mixed race, will show a slight
increase from 14% to 15% of the total.
'Ageing baby boomers'
It is likely that the demographic
changes will be experienced right across the country - and no longer
confined to urban areas as in the past.
The population will also be ageing,
with some 88 million people, predominantly white, being aged 65 and
over.
The number of people over 85 years
old will more than triple in the next 40 years, reaching 19 million.
"The white population is older and
very much centred around the ageing baby boomers who are well past
their high fertility years," William Frey, a demographer at the
Brookings Institution think tank, told the Associated Press.
"The future of America is epitomised
by the young people today. They are
basically the melting pot we are going to see in the future."
The Census Bureau points out that its
projections are subject to big revisions, depending on immigration
policy, natural or man-made disasters.
The projections are also subject to
changing cultural definitions and the way people see themselves.
The New York Times notes that in
earlier eras Irish, Italian and Eastern European Jewish immigrants were
not universally considered as whites.
Until the 1960s, Hispanics were not
counted separately by the census and Asian Indians were classified as
whites, the paper reports.
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